Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on November 10?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 34¢ · $138 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$138.21
-$1.32
29.2¢ → 34¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 29.5¢ | $104.09 | $102.37 | -$1.72 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $21.3 | $21 | -$0.3 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.4¢ | $5.53 | $6.32 | +$0.78 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $5.68 | $5.6 | -$0.08 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $2.93 | $2.93 | +$0 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
Invested
$104.09
Value
$102.37
PnL
-$1.72
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$21.3
Value
$21
PnL
-$0.3
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Invested
$5.53
Value
$6.32
PnL
+$0.78
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$5.68
Value
$5.6
PnL
-$0.08
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
Invested
$2.93
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$0
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.