Will the highest temperature in Austin be 63°F or below on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $137 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$136.96
$0.75
99.2¢ → 99.1¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $74.63 | $74.79 | +$0.16 | 100% 95-0 (95) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $29.79 | $29.91 | +$0.12 | 11% 35-271 (306) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $36.94 | $22.36 | +$0.54 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $4.99 | $4.95 | -$0.04 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $4.99 | $4.95 | -$0.03 | 31% 190-424 (614) |
Invested
$74.63
Value
$74.79
PnL
+$0.16
Record
100%
95-0 (95)
Invested
$29.79
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0.12
Record
11%
35-271 (306)
Invested
$36.94
Value
$22.36
PnL
+$0.54
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.04
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.03
Record
31%
190-424 (614)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.