Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on November 1?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 13¢ · $278 held · ends Nov 1

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$277.87

Combined PnL

-$74.22

Smart Money Entry

15.2¢ → 13.3¢

-13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$131.53

Total Shares1,367

Combined PnL-$76.72

No1 trader

Total Value$34.32

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$2.5

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 15.4¢	$189.63	$112.91	-$76.72	50% 673-672 (1345)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 18.3¢	$124.03	$112.02	-$12.01	59% 1919-1349 (3268)
└ No leg	Noavg 85.8¢	$64.36	$65.03	+$0.67
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.3¢	$64.79	$47	-$12.67
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$31.82	$34.32	+$2.5	56% 14220-11020 (25240)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$18.62	$18.62	-$0	54% 466-390 (856)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$189.63

Value

$112.91

PnL

-$76.72

Record

50%

673-672 (1345)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$124.03

Value

$112.02

PnL

-$12.01

Record

59%

1919-1349 (3268)

Both legs:

No$64.3685.8¢+$0.67

Yes$64.7918.3¢-$12.67

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$31.82

Value

$34.32

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

14220-11020 (25240)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.62

Value

$18.62

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

466-390 (856)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.9%

13.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$570.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

670.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.