Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on November 1?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 54¢ · $888 held · ends Nov 1

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$887.6

Combined PnL

$353.05

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 54¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$617.28

Total Shares1,382

Combined PnL+$357.25

No2 traders

Total Value$270.32

Total Shares501

Combined PnL-$4.21

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 16.7¢	$215.69	$574.76	+$359.06	50% 673-672 (1345)
24 241532532432	Noavg 51.6¢	$217.18	$227.46	+$10.28	59% 1919-1349 (3268)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$57.87	$42.86	-$14.49	18% 364-1623 (1987)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$42.53	$42.53	-$1.81	54% 466-390 (856)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$215.69

Value

$574.76

PnL

+$359.06

Record

50%

673-672 (1345)

241532532432

Invested

$217.18

Value

$227.46

PnL

+$10.28

Record

59%

1919-1349 (3268)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$57.87

Value

$42.86

PnL

-$14.49

Record

18%

364-1623 (1987)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.53

Value

$42.53

PnL

-$1.81

Record

54%

466-390 (856)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.