Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 66¢ · $463 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$462.62
$56.39
68.8¢ → 66¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 26.1¢ | $130 | $172.19 | +$42.19 | 50% 670-669 (1339) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 68.7¢ | $160.12 | $153.78 | -$1.68 | 54% 460-387 (847) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $96.43 | $112.84 | +$16.42 | 59% 1908-1339 (3247) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 69.4¢ | $23.9 | $22.72 | -$0.49 | 53% 6677-5876 (12553) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 70.2¢ | $168.27 | $1.08 | -$0.05 | 18% 358-1583 (1941) |
Invested
$130
Value
$172.19
PnL
+$42.19
Record
50%
670-669 (1339)
Invested
$160.12
Value
$153.78
PnL
-$1.68
Record
54%
460-387 (847)
Invested
$96.43
Value
$112.84
PnL
+$16.42
Record
59%
1908-1339 (3247)
Invested
$23.9
Value
$22.72
PnL
-$0.49
Record
53%
6677-5876 (12553)
IstarothInvested
$168.27
Value
$1.08
PnL
-$0.05
Record
18%
358-1583 (1941)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.