Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (58%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 27?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 42¢ · $194 held · ended Oct 27

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$194.08

Combined PnL

-$10.92

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 42¢

-15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$169.87

Total Shares315

Combined PnL-$17.7

No3 traders

Total Value$24.21

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$6.79

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 48.9¢	$113.83	$97.69	-$16.14	55% 217-181 (398)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 51.8¢	$66.94	$64.71	-$0.31	32% 273-593 (866)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 39¢	$7.8	$11.6	+$3.8	61% 1529-967 (2496)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$8.72	$7.48	-$1.25	53% 6235-5472 (11707)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$5.43	$6.82	+$1.39	57% 12909-9833 (22742)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 42¢	$4.2	$5.8	+$1.6	32% 4311-9231 (13542)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$113.83

Value

$97.69

PnL

-$16.14

Record

55%

217-181 (398)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.94

Value

$64.71

PnL

-$0.31

Record

32%

273-593 (866)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$11.6

PnL

+$3.8

Record

61%

1529-967 (2496)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.72

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$1.25

Record

53%

6235-5472 (11707)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.43

Value

$6.82

PnL

+$1.39

Record

57%

12909-9833 (22742)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$1.6

Record

32%

4311-9231 (13542)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.