Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on November 7?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 88¢ · $115 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$115.01
$0.93
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $46.78 | $47.52 | +$0.74 | 19% 2917-12377 (15294) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86.7¢ | $27.26 | $27.67 | +$0.4 | 58% 21387-15516 (36903) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | No | $26.4 | $26.4 | +$0 | 58% 15835-11510 (27345) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 89.4¢ | $13.41 | $13.2 | -$0.21 | 54% 10676-9209 (19885) |
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$46.78
Value
$47.52
PnL
+$0.74
Record
19%
2917-12377 (15294)
Invested
$27.26
Value
$27.67
PnL
+$0.4
Record
58%
21387-15516 (36903)
Invested
$26.4
Value
$26.4
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
15835-11510 (27345)
Invested
$13.41
Value
$13.2
PnL
-$0.21
Record
54%
10676-9209 (19885)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.