Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on November 5?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 44¢ · $112 held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$112.37
$13.17
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $47.52 | $49.41 | -$0.99 | 53% 3958-3514 (7472) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 56.2¢ | $33.74 | $31.2 | -$2.54 | 53% 23272-20444 (43716) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.4¢ | $16.83 | $13.06 | +$1.65 | 53% 10364-9021 (19385) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $15.58 | $9.65 | +$12.08 | 75% 13414-4377 (17791) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $9.56 | $8.97 | +$2.96 | 58% 21129-15368 (36497) |
Invested
$47.52
Value
$49.41
PnL
-$0.99
Record
53%
3958-3514 (7472)
Invested
$33.74
Value
$31.2
PnL
-$2.54
Record
53%
23272-20444 (43716)
Invested
$16.83
Value
$13.06
PnL
+$1.65
Record
53%
10364-9021 (19385)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$15.58
Value
$9.65
PnL
+$12.08
Record
75%
13414-4377 (17791)
Invested
$9.56
Value
$8.97
PnL
+$2.96
Record
58%
21129-15368 (36497)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.