Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on November 2?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 81¢ · $367 held · ended Nov 2

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$367.27

Combined PnL

$10.78

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 80.9¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$358.38

Total Shares444

Combined PnL+$8.18

Yes4 traders

Total Value$8.17

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$2.59

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Noavg 83¢	$350.26	$338.96	+$9.6	58% 1615-1157 (2772)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 85¢	$19.82	$10.78	-$0.95	53% 7528-6656 (14184)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$16.33	$8.63	-$0.47	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.2¢	$1.99	$3.35	+$1.36	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.4¢	$2.01	$2.57	+$0.57	28% 5957-15587 (21544)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.76	$1.3	+$0.53	35% 107-199 (306)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.9¢	$0.82	$0.95	+$0.14	35% 558-1046 (1604)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Invested

$350.26

Value

$338.96

PnL

+$9.6

Record

58%

1615-1157 (2772)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$19.82

Value

$10.78

PnL

-$0.95

Record

53%

7528-6656 (14184)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.33

Value

$8.63

PnL

-$0.47

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$1.36

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.01

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.57

Record

28%

5957-15587 (21544)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.53

Record

35%

107-199 (306)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.14

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.6%

80.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.