Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on November 2?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 81¢ · $541 held · ends Nov 2

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$541.38

Combined PnL

-$5.66

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 80.5¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$440.17

Total Shares584

Combined PnL-$6.75

Yes3 traders

Total Value$100.97

Total Shares413

Combined PnL+$1.1

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 76.3¢	$304.47	$300.68	-$3.79	50% 1895-1867 (3762)
24 241532532432	Noavg 77¢	$142.45	$139.48	-$2.97	59% 1908-1339 (3247)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$65.94	$68.32	+$2.38	62% 1447-904 (2351)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$31.02	$29.78	-$1.24	42% 1724-2356 (4080)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.92	$2.87	-$0.05	53% 6677-5876 (12553)

hello.67

Invested

$304.47

Value

$300.68

PnL

-$3.79

Record

50%

1895-1867 (3762)

241532532432

Invested

$142.45

Value

$139.48

PnL

-$2.97

Record

59%

1908-1339 (3247)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.94

Value

$68.32

PnL

+$2.38

Record

62%

1447-904 (2351)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.02

Value

$29.78

PnL

-$1.24

Record

42%

1724-2356 (4080)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.92

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

6677-5876 (12553)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.