Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on November 2?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 23¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 2

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$130.74

Combined PnL

$2.84

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$70.6

Total Shares307

Combined PnL+$1.57

No1 trader

Total Value$60.14

Total Shares71

Combined PnL+$1.27

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.6¢	$62.38	$63.47	+$1.1	50% 1895-1867 (3762)
RO rocky42019<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$78.55	$60.14	+$1.27	42% 1724-2356 (4080)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.5¢	$6.66	$7.13	+$0.47	59% 1908-1339 (3247)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.38

Value

$63.47

PnL

+$1.1

Record

50%

1895-1867 (3762)

rocky42019<$100

Invested

$78.55

Value

$60.14

PnL

+$1.27

Record

42%

1724-2356 (4080)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.66

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$0.47

Record

59%

1908-1339 (3247)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.9%

23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$301.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

401.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.