Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on November 2?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $6 held · ended Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$6.28
-$66.04
16.2¢ → 0.2¢
-99% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $19 | $4.4 | -$47.94 | 50% 2042-2019 (4061) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.05 | $1.1 | -$0.1 | 41% 944-1372 (2316) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $16.38 | $0.62 | -$15.76 | 53% 3389-3008 (6397) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $2.4 | $0.16 | -$2.24 | 42% 1798-2479 (4277) |
Invested
$19
Value
$4.4
PnL
-$47.94
Record
50%
2042-2019 (4061)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$1.1
PnL
-$0.1
Record
41%
944-1372 (2316)
Invested
$16.38
Value
$0.62
PnL
-$15.76
Record
53%
3389-3008 (6397)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$2.24
Record
42%
1798-2479 (4277)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.