Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $125 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$125.44

Combined PnL

-$2.13

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$125.42

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares24

Combined PnL-$2.19

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$47.35	$47.35	-$0	99% 1425-20 (1445)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.97	+$0.03	42% 1655-2297 (3952)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$13.05	$13.06	+$0.01	49% 845-866 (1711)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.99	+$0.01	28% 1054-2759 (3813)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.99	+$0.01	36% 265-479 (744)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.99	+$0	31% 1081-2425 (3506)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.07	$5.07	+$0	52% 830-759 (1589)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	14% 93-568 (661)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.39	$0	-$0.38	32% 224-485 (709)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$47.35

Value

$47.35

PnL

-$0

Record

99%

1425-20 (1445)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

42%

1655-2297 (3952)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$13.05

Value

$13.06

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

845-866 (1711)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

28%

1054-2759 (3813)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

36%

265-479 (744)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

1081-2425 (3506)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

830-759 (1589)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

14%

93-568 (661)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

PnL

-$0.38

Record

32%

224-485 (709)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.