Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $94 held · ends Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$94.02

Combined PnL

-$0.75

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$92.47

Total Shares93

Combined PnL+$1.35

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.54

Total Shares86

Combined PnL-$2.1

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97¢	$48.5	$49.7	+$1.2	35% 251-467 (718)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.81	$19.72	-$0.09	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$10.98	$11.07	+$0.09	63% 741-442 (1183)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$6.91	$6.97	+$0.06	49% 758-801 (1559)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$4.92	$5.01	+$0.09	51% 773-729 (1502)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$2.51	$1.32	-$1.19	14% 82-515 (597)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.41	$0.08	-$0.33	43% 5075-6626 (11701)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.39	$0.08	-$0.31	32% 168-365 (533)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.33	$0.07	-$0.27	30% 243-579 (822)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$48.5

Value

$49.7

PnL

+$1.2

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$19.81

Value

$19.72

PnL

-$0.09

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$10.98

Value

$11.07

PnL

+$0.09

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.91

Value

$6.97

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.92

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.09

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.51

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$1.19

Record

14%

82-515 (597)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.33

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.31

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.27

Record

30%

243-579 (822)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.