Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on November 15?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 16¢ · $198 held · ends Nov 15

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$197.84

Combined PnL

-$6.28

Smart Money Entry

17.8¢ → 16¢

-10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$141.15

Total Shares855

Combined PnL-$11.12

No6 traders

Total Value$56.68

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$4.84

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Yesavg 17.8¢	$151.43	$140.09	-$11.35	62% 1129-683 (1812)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 82¢	$16.4	$17	+$0.6	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$39.49	$13.26	+$1.09	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 79¢	$23.7	$8.5	+$2.98	29% 237-570 (807)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 84¢	$8.4	$8.5	+$0.1	34% 240-466 (706)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 85¢	$8.5	$8.5	+$0	30% 1031-2401 (3432)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 78¢	$0.84	$0.92	+$0.08	46% 1081-1285 (2366)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.36	$0.67	+$0.3	58% 692-501 (1193)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.9¢	$10.98	$0.4	-$0.08	31% 157-344 (501)

vibing123CTR

Yes

Invested

$151.43

Value

$140.09

PnL

-$11.35

Record

62%

1129-683 (1812)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.4

Value

$17

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39.49

Value

$13.26

PnL

+$1.09

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$23.7

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$2.98

Record

29%

237-570 (807)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

34%

240-466 (706)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

1031-2401 (3432)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$0.08

Record

46%

1081-1285 (2366)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

692-501 (1193)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.98

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.08

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.7%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$464.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

564.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.