Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 48¢ · $300 held · ends Nov 15

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$299.81

Combined PnL

$33.42

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 48¢

-6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$168.25

Total Shares344

Combined PnL-$6.31

Yes2 traders

Total Value$131.56

Total Shares253

Combined PnL+$39.73

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 51.1¢	$139.48	$124.31	-$3.47	31% 161-352 (513)
VI vibing123	Yesavg 38.6¢	$90.01	$121.16	+$31.15	62% 1131-688 (1819)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$17.15	$14.7	-$2.45	28% 1018-2625 (3643)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$10.4	+$8.58	14% 82-514 (596)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$8.2	$9.8	+$1.6	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$10.89	$6.37	-$1.62	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.8	-$0.1	29% 1100-2665 (3765)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$3.43	$3.36	-$0.07	59% 724-513 (1237)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.62	$2.47	-$0.15	51% 719-703 (1422)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.49	$2.44	-$0.05	49% 753-797 (1550)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$139.48

Value

$124.31

PnL

-$3.47

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

vibing123

Yes

Invested

$90.01

Value

$121.16

PnL

+$31.15

Record

62%

1131-688 (1819)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$17.15

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$2.45

Record

28%

1018-2625 (3643)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$8.58

Record

14%

82-514 (596)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$8.2

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$1.6

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$6.37

PnL

-$1.62

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

29%

1100-2665 (3765)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$3.43

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$0.07

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.62

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.