Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on November 15?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 68¢ · $675 held · ends Nov 15

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$675.12

Combined PnL

-$3.15

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 68¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$549.05

Total Shares798

Combined PnL-$20.47

Yes1 trader

Total Value$126.08

Total Shares394

Combined PnL+$17.32

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 70.5¢	$505.43	$487.56	-$17.87	62% 1131-688 (1819)
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 27.6¢	$108.76	$126.08	+$17.32	39% 40-63 (103)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 71.7¢	$66.92	$20.47	+$0.4	14% 82-514 (596)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 80¢	$16	$13.6	-$2.4	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$15.83	$13.04	-$0.6	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 68¢	$6.8	$6.8	-$0	34% 269-524 (793)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 68¢	$4.12	$4.12	+$0	63% 736-439 (1175)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.45	$3.45	+$0	51% 719-703 (1422)

vibing123

Invested

$505.43

Value

$487.56

PnL

-$17.87

Record

62%

1131-688 (1819)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.76

Value

$126.08

PnL

+$17.32

Record

39%

40-63 (103)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$66.92

Value

$20.47

PnL

+$0.4

Record

14%

82-514 (596)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16

Value

$13.6

PnL

-$2.4

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.83

Value

$13.04

PnL

-$0.6

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$0

Record

34%

269-524 (793)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.12

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.