Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $120 held · ends Nov 15

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$119.68

Combined PnL

-$0.29

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 96.7¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$118.69

Total Shares123

Combined PnL+$0.92

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.99

Total Shares24

Combined PnL-$1.21

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$38.83	$38.68	-$0.15	34% 269-524 (793)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$19.36	$19.37	+$0.01	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
VI vibing123<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$18.5	$19.37	+$0.87	62% 1131-688 (1819)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$10.98	$11.14	+$0.16	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$9.67	$9.69	+$0.02	42% 1625-2287 (3912)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$9.68	$9.69	+$0.01	29% 1100-2665 (3765)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$5.87	$5.86	-$0.01	51% 769-727 (1496)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$4.86	$4.88	+$0.02	51% 804-766 (1570)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.82	-$1	14% 82-514 (596)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.39	$0.17	-$0.21	31% 161-352 (513)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$38.83

Value

$38.68

PnL

-$0.15

Record

34%

269-524 (793)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.36

Value

$19.37

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

vibing123<$100

Invested

$18.5

Value

$19.37

PnL

+$0.87

Record

62%

1131-688 (1819)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.98

Value

$11.14

PnL

+$0.16

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$9.67

Value

$9.69

PnL

+$0.02

Record

42%

1625-2287 (3912)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.69

PnL

+$0.01

Record

29%

1100-2665 (3765)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.87

Value

$5.86

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$1

Record

14%

82-514 (596)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.21

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.