Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $71 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$71.13

Combined PnL

-$4.33

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$70.96

Total Shares71

Combined PnL-$0.07

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares49

Combined PnL-$4.26

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	+$0	34% 229-452 (681)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.93	-$0.05	30% 1036-2402 (3438)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.99	+$0	34% 269-524 (793)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.05	$6.04	-$0.02	51% 719-703 (1422)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.03	$5.03	+$0	49% 753-797 (1550)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.07	-$1.75	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.07	-$1.75	14% 82-514 (596)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.41	$0.02	-$0.39	43% 5066-6598 (11664)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.39	$0.01	-$0.37	31% 161-352 (513)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

229-452 (681)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.93

PnL

-$0.05

Record

30%

1036-2402 (3438)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

269-524 (793)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.05

Value

$6.04

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.75

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.75

Record

14%

82-514 (596)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.39

Record

43%

5066-6598 (11664)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.37

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.