Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 62°F or higher on November 14?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $60 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 89%
$60
-$80.44
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 48%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.54 | $59.57 | +$0.03 | 99% 1195-12 (1207) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $20.89 | $0.11 | -$20.77 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $16.82 | $0.09 | -$16.73 | 42% 1621-2282 (3903) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $14.28 | $0.08 | -$14.2 | 56% 2268-1802 (4070) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.91 | $0.06 | -$10.85 | 31% 146-327 (473) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $31.34 | $0.06 | -$12.47 | 36% 3727-6719 (10446) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | $0.02 | -$2.71 | 29% 1096-2660 (3756) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.3 | $0.01 | -$2.29 | 37% 1515-2566 (4081) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.46 | $0 | -$0.46 | 27% 667-1774 (2441) |
Invested
$59.54
Value
$59.57
PnL
+$0.03
Record
99%
1195-12 (1207)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$20.89
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$20.77
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
Invested
$16.82
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$16.73
Record
42%
1621-2282 (3903)
Invested
$14.28
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$14.2
Record
56%
2268-1802 (4070)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$10.91
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$10.85
Record
31%
146-327 (473)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$31.34
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$12.47
Record
36%
3727-6719 (10446)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.71
Record
29%
1096-2660 (3756)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.29
Record
37%
1515-2566 (4081)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.46
Record
27%
667-1774 (2441)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.