Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on November 14?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$122.22

Combined PnL

-$69.55

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$121.58

Total Shares122

Combined PnL-$2.7

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.64

Total Shares644

Combined PnL-$66.85

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer	Noavg 99.9¢	$124.28	$121.58	-$2.7	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.89	$0.23	-$20.66	43% 5073-6616 (11689)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.28	$0.16	-$14.12	55% 2289-1901 (4190)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.91	$0.12	-$10.79	31% 165-364 (529)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.76	$0.06	-$5.69	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$84.3	$0.06	-$12.41	36% 3765-6817 (10582)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.46	$0.01	-$0.45	27% 691-1911 (2602)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0.01	-$0.45	49% 755-800 (1555)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.3	$0	-$2.27	37% 1532-2611 (4143)

northdrawer

Invested

$124.28

Value

$121.58

PnL

-$2.7

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.89

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$20.66

Record

43%

5073-6616 (11689)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.28

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$14.12

Record

55%

2289-1901 (4190)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.91

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$10.79

Record

31%

165-364 (529)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.76

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.69

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.3

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$12.41

Record

36%

3765-6817 (10582)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.45

Record

27%

691-1911 (2602)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.45

Record

49%

755-800 (1555)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

PnL

-$2.27

Record

37%

1532-2611 (4143)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.