Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on November 14?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 98¢ · $264 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$263.99
-$22.76
98.6¢ → 98.3¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99.5¢ | $124.38 | $121.88 | -$2.51 | 29% 232-564 (796) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $35.19 | $30.3 | +$0.36 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $29.31 | $29.25 | -$0.06 | 28% 1014-2623 (3637) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $29.07 | $29.25 | +$0.18 | 33% 220-451 (671) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $28.88 | $28.38 | -$0.5 | 53% 6888-6032 (12920) |
VI vibing123CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $9.81 | $15.91 | +$6.1 | 62% 1127-678 (1805) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $65.56 | $4.81 | -$15.81 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $14.28 | $4.08 | -$10.2 | 56% 2268-1802 (4070) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.46 | $0.13 | -$0.33 | 27% 667-1774 (2441) |
Invested
$124.38
Value
$121.88
PnL
-$2.51
Record
29%
232-564 (796)
Invested
$35.19
Value
$30.3
PnL
+$0.36
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$29.31
Value
$29.25
PnL
-$0.06
Record
28%
1014-2623 (3637)
Invested
$29.07
Value
$29.25
PnL
+$0.18
Record
33%
220-451 (671)
Invested
$28.88
Value
$28.38
PnL
-$0.5
Record
53%
6888-6032 (12920)
Invested
$9.81
Value
$15.91
PnL
+$6.1
Record
62%
1127-678 (1805)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$65.56
Value
$4.81
PnL
-$15.81
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
Invested
$14.28
Value
$4.08
PnL
-$10.2
Record
56%
2268-1802 (4070)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$0.33
Record
27%
667-1774 (2441)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.