Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on November 14?
3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 16¢ · $537 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
10
Yes 30%
$537.35
-$132.38
20.6¢ → 15.5¢
-25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123CTR | Yesavg 21.4¢ | $478.48 | $312.76 | -$165.72 | 62% 1127-678 (1805) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 67.6¢ | $48.33 | $49.92 | +$11.59 | 40% 620-939 (1559) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 72.2¢ | $35.86 | $38.22 | +$2.36 | 72% 823-323 (1146) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 76.5¢ | $30.6 | $30.8 | +$0.2 | 13% 76-495 (571) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 65¢ | $188.98 | $23.1 | +$9.6 | 31% 146-327 (473) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $21.3 | $23.1 | +$1.8 | 29% 232-564 (796) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 74.8¢ | $21.78 | $22.41 | +$0.63 | 53% 6888-6032 (12920) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $14.28 | $21.99 | +$7.71 | 56% 2268-1802 (4070) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74.9¢ | $77.45 | $14.11 | -$0.81 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.46 | $0.71 | +$0.25 | 27% 667-1774 (2441) |
Invested
$478.48
Value
$312.76
PnL
-$165.72
Record
62%
1127-678 (1805)
Invested
$48.33
Value
$49.92
PnL
+$11.59
Record
40%
620-939 (1559)
Invested
$35.86
Value
$38.22
PnL
+$2.36
Record
72%
823-323 (1146)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$30.6
Value
$30.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
13%
76-495 (571)
HaradwaithInvested
$188.98
Value
$23.1
PnL
+$9.6
Record
31%
146-327 (473)
Invested
$21.3
Value
$23.1
PnL
+$1.8
Record
29%
232-564 (796)
Invested
$21.78
Value
$22.41
PnL
+$0.63
Record
53%
6888-6032 (12920)
Invested
$14.28
Value
$21.99
PnL
+$7.71
Record
56%
2268-1802 (4070)
Invested
$77.45
Value
$14.11
PnL
-$0.81
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0.71
PnL
+$0.25
Record
27%
667-1774 (2441)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.