Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on November 14?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 55¢ · $692 held · ends Nov 14

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$691.71

Combined PnL

$155.18

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 54.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$557.51

Total Shares997

Combined PnL+$162.74

No6 traders

Total Value$134.2

Total Shares302

Combined PnL-$7.55

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Yesavg 48.8¢	$445.42	$501.6	+$56.18	62% 1124-676 (1800)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 45.1¢	$56.42	$53.75	-$2.67	27% 973-2599 (3572)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Noavg 46.4¢	$47.61	$46.13	-$1.48	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 50.5¢	$176.83	$28.23	+$51.14	30% 108-251 (359)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 51.1¢	$27.37	$26.92	-$0.46	73% 778-291 (1069)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$15.9	$12.9	-$3	30% 187-428 (615)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$15.73	$12.52	-$3.21	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$9.23	$6.8	-$0.17	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$33.42	$2.1	+$2.98	38% 543-874 (1417)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$65.08	$0.76	+$55.88	45% 4955-6107 (11062)

vibing123

Yes

Invested

$445.42

Value

$501.6

PnL

+$56.18

Record

62%

1124-676 (1800)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$56.42

Value

$53.75

PnL

-$2.67

Record

27%

973-2599 (3572)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$47.61

Value

$46.13

PnL

-$1.48

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$176.83

Value

$28.23

PnL

+$51.14

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.37

Value

$26.92

PnL

-$0.46

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$15.9

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$3

Record

30%

187-428 (615)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$15.73

Value

$12.52

PnL

-$3.21

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$9.23

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$0.17

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$33.42

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$2.98

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.08

Value

$0.76

PnL

+$55.88

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.