Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on November 14?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 81¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$1.0K
$289.97
57.9¢ → 81¢
+40% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $488.45 | $744.51 | +$256.06 | 62% 1127-679 (1806) |
BI BilberryCTR | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $124 | $133.8 | +$9.8 | 41% 37-54 (91) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $38.43 | $38.97 | +$0.54 | 72% 829-328 (1157) |
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $267.68 | $28.6 | +$19.76 | 56% 2269-1817 (4086) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85.8¢ | $39.57 | $26.1 | -$3.63 | 52% 1608-1475 (3083) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $23.4 | $24.9 | +$1.5 | 28% 1014-2623 (3637) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 74.2¢ | $21.6 | $24.16 | +$2.56 | 53% 6922-6099 (13021) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.2¢ | $62.89 | $7.18 | +$3.38 | 40% 625-948 (1573) |
Invested
$488.45
Value
$744.51
PnL
+$256.06
Record
62%
1127-679 (1806)
Invested
$124
Value
$133.8
PnL
+$9.8
Record
41%
37-54 (91)
Invested
$38.43
Value
$38.97
PnL
+$0.54
Record
72%
829-328 (1157)
Invested
$267.68
Value
$28.6
PnL
+$19.76
Record
56%
2269-1817 (4086)
Invested
$39.57
Value
$26.1
PnL
-$3.63
Record
52%
1608-1475 (3083)
Invested
$23.4
Value
$24.9
PnL
+$1.5
Record
28%
1014-2623 (3637)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$24.16
PnL
+$2.56
Record
53%
6922-6099 (13021)
Invested
$62.89
Value
$7.18
PnL
+$3.38
Record
40%
625-948 (1573)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.