Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on November 14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 98¢ · $318 held · ends Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$318.28

Combined PnL

-$33.27

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 97.8¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$312.9

Total Shares321

Combined PnL+$0.54

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.39

Total Shares250

Combined PnL-$33.81

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel	Noavg 98.1¢	$122.59	$122.31	-$0.27	30% 187-428 (615)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$54.13	$55.1	+$0.97	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$38.7	$38.52	-$0.18	38% 543-874 (1417)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$29.63	$29.36	-$0.27	27% 973-2599 (3572)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$29.64	$29.36	-$0.29	27% 197-540 (737)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$28.17	$28.48	+$0.31	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 95¢	$9.5	$9.77	+$0.27	65% 4251-2269 (6520)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.28	$3.38	-$10.9	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$149.67	$1.97	-$14.91	45% 4955-6107 (11062)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$130.48	$0.04	-$8	36% 3613-6424 (10037)

quietparcel

Invested

$122.59

Value

$122.31

PnL

-$0.27

Record

30%

187-428 (615)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$54.13

Value

$55.1

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$38.7

Value

$38.52

PnL

-$0.18

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.63

Value

$29.36

PnL

-$0.27

Record

27%

973-2599 (3572)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.64

Value

$29.36

PnL

-$0.29

Record

27%

197-540 (737)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.17

Value

$28.48

PnL

+$0.31

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.77

PnL

+$0.27

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.28

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$10.9

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$149.67

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$14.91

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$130.48

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8

Record

36%

3613-6424 (10037)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.