Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on November 14?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $170 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$170.18
-$36.59
99.8¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $124.77 | $124.81 | +$0.04 | 31% 221-498 (719) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.83 | $29.82 | -$0.01 | 29% 1059-2631 (3690) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $15.05 | $15.09 | +$0.04 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $14.28 | $0.24 | -$14.05 | 58% 2224-1622 (3846) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $95.38 | $0.22 | -$20.35 | 45% 4955-6107 (11062) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.3 | $0.01 | -$2.25 | 37% 1467-2446 (3913) |
Invested
$124.77
Value
$124.81
PnL
+$0.04
Record
31%
221-498 (719)
Invested
$29.83
Value
$29.82
PnL
-$0.01
Record
29%
1059-2631 (3690)
Invested
$15.05
Value
$15.09
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
Invested
$14.28
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$14.05
Record
58%
2224-1622 (3846)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$95.38
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$20.35
Record
45%
4955-6107 (11062)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.25
Record
37%
1467-2446 (3913)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.