Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on November 14?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.32

Combined PnL

-$84.27

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.32

Total Shares878

Combined PnL-$84.27

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.89	$0.34	-$20.54	43% 5075-6626 (11701)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.82	$0.28	-$16.54	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.28	$0.24	-$14.05	55% 2291-1902 (4193)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.64	$0.22	-$13.41	32% 168-365 (533)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$63.96	$0.13	-$12.37	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.05	-$2.68	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2	$0.03	-$1.97	49% 758-801 (1559)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.3	$0.02	-$2.27	37% 1532-2611 (4143)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.46	$0.01	-$0.45	26% 692-1921 (2613)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.89

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$20.54

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.82

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$16.54

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.28

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$14.05

Record

55%

2291-1902 (4193)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.64

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$13.41

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.96

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$12.37

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.68

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.97

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.27

Record

37%

1532-2611 (4143)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.45

Record

26%

692-1921 (2613)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.