Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on November 13?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $157 held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$157.32

Combined PnL

$0.56

Smart Money Entry

97.4¢ → 99.5¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$156.96

Total Shares158

Combined PnL+$1.7

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.36

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$1.15

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$38.72	$39.64	+$0.92	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$25.33	$25.18	-$0.15	62% 681-417 (1098)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$23.18	$23.13	-$0.05	58% 669-494 (1163)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$18.64	$19.82	+$1.18	39% 579-908 (1487)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$31.14	$16.54	+$1.45	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$10.21	$10.21	+$0	48% 727-794 (1521)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$9.91	-$1.61	29% 3101-7566 (10667)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.04	$5.03	-$0.01	45% 1041-1270 (2311)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$5	$4.98	-$0.02	57% 644-481 (1125)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0.01	99% 1095-12 (1107)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.18	$0.13	-$0.06	48% 699-749 (1448)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.57	$0.12	-$0.45	31% 114-255 (369)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.09	$0.07	-$0.03	50% 750-742 (1492)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$6.02	$0.05	-$0.62	51% 709-691 (1400)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38.72

Value

$39.64

PnL

+$0.92

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$25.33

Value

$25.18

PnL

-$0.15

Record

62%

681-417 (1098)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$23.18

Value

$23.13

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

669-494 (1163)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$18.64

Value

$19.82

PnL

+$1.18

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$31.14

Value

$16.54

PnL

+$1.45

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$10.21

Value

$10.21

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

727-794 (1521)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$9.91

PnL

-$1.61

Record

29%

3101-7566 (10667)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

45%

1041-1270 (2311)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

644-481 (1125)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1095-12 (1107)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

699-749 (1448)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.45

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

750-742 (1492)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.02

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.62

Record

51%

709-691 (1400)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.