Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on November 13?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 94¢ · $139 held · ended Nov 13

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$138.62

Combined PnL

-$13.78

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 94¢

+12% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$124.16

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$8.72

Yes3 traders

Total Value$14.46

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$22.51

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$27	$36.8	+$9.8	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98¢	$26.74	$24.99	-$1.76	50% 666-671 (1337)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$70.68	$16.99	-$5.03	39% 579-908 (1487)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 28.5¢	$180.09	$13.5	-$22.59	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80.4¢	$25.11	$11.01	+$5.65	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$9.87	$9.84	-$0.03	57% 644-481 (1125)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$28.83	$9.42	+$0.3	29% 3101-7566 (10667)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$5.68	$5.66	-$0.02	62% 681-417 (1098)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$4.98	$4.85	-$0.13	51% 709-691 (1400)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.6	-$0.05	48% 727-794 (1521)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$0.42	$0.51	+$0.09	58% 669-494 (1163)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$0.46	$0.45	-$0.01	48% 699-749 (1448)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$36.8

PnL

+$9.8

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$26.74

Value

$24.99

PnL

-$1.76

Record

50%

666-671 (1337)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$70.68

Value

$16.99

PnL

-$5.03

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$180.09

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$22.59

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.11

Value

$11.01

PnL

+$5.65

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

644-481 (1125)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$28.83

Value

$9.42

PnL

+$0.3

Record

29%

3101-7566 (10667)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.68

Value

$5.66

PnL

-$0.02

Record

62%

681-417 (1098)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.13

Record

51%

709-691 (1400)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

727-794 (1521)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

669-494 (1163)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

699-749 (1448)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.