Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on November 13?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 93¢ · $327 held · ended Nov 13

Yes93¢No7¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$327.5

Combined PnL

$47.89

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 93¢

+90% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$253.87

Total Shares414

Combined PnL+$46.62

No8 traders

Total Value$73.18

Total Shares187

Combined PnL+$1.27

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 46.5¢	$216.44	$205.57	+$44.13	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 42.1¢	$84.34	$36.48	-$6.19	39% 579-908 (1487)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 74.3¢	$20.23	$18.01	-$2.21	58% 669-494 (1163)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 54.5¢	$21.8	$18	-$3.8	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$10.4	$11.7	+$1.3	73% 795-298 (1093)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$11.05	$10.73	-$0.33	48% 727-794 (1521)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 37.7¢	$6.41	$6.81	+$0.4	45% 1041-1270 (2311)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$13.5	$4.4	+$9.18	29% 3101-7566 (10667)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$3.57	$4.21	+$0.64	57% 644-481 (1125)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$4.65	$3.91	-$0.74	50% 750-742 (1492)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.57	$3.66	+$3.09	31% 114-255 (369)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$2.21	$2.13	-$0.08	48% 699-749 (1448)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$1.17	$0.98	-$0.2	13% 65-441 (506)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$0.51	$0.48	+$2.69	51% 709-691 (1400)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$216.44

Value

$205.57

PnL

+$44.13

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$84.34

Value

$36.48

PnL

-$6.19

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.23

Value

$18.01

PnL

-$2.21

Record

58%

669-494 (1163)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$21.8

Value

$18

PnL

-$3.8

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.4

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$1.3

Record

73%

795-298 (1093)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.05

Value

$10.73

PnL

-$0.33

Record

48%

727-794 (1521)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$6.41

Value

$6.81

PnL

+$0.4

Record

45%

1041-1270 (2311)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$13.5

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$9.18

Record

29%

3101-7566 (10667)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.57

Value

$4.21

PnL

+$0.64

Record

57%

644-481 (1125)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$0.74

Record

50%

750-742 (1492)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$3.66

PnL

+$3.09

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.21

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

699-749 (1448)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$1.17

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.2

Record

13%

65-441 (506)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$2.69

Record

51%

709-691 (1400)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.