Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $136 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$136.02
$0.15
99.6¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.88 | $39.88 | +$0 | 99% 355-2 (357) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $33.51 | $33.59 | +$0.08 | 53% 5788-5165 (10953) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.94 | +$0.02 | 38% 3346-5401 (8747) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.91 | $19.94 | +$0.03 | 31% 2845-6236 (9081) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $17.61 | $17.63 | +$0.02 | 27% 108-285 (393) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.04 | $5.04 | +$0 | 43% 757-1024 (1781) |
Invested
$39.88
Value
$39.88
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
355-2 (357)
Invested
$33.51
Value
$33.59
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
5788-5165 (10953)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.94
PnL
+$0.02
Record
38%
3346-5401 (8747)
Invested
$19.91
Value
$19.94
PnL
+$0.03
Record
31%
2845-6236 (9081)
Invested
$17.61
Value
$17.63
PnL
+$0.02
Record
27%
108-285 (393)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$5.04
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
757-1024 (1781)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.