Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $181 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$181.39
$6.12
90.5¢ → 94¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $95.58 | $95.79 | +$0.21 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $33.4 | $31.38 | +$2.58 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $18.8 | +$1.2 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $17.2 | $18.8 | +$1.6 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $16.09 | $16.62 | +$0.53 | 27% 921-2513 (3434) |
Invested
$95.58
Value
$95.79
PnL
+$0.21
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$33.4
Value
$31.38
PnL
+$2.58
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$17.6
Value
$18.8
PnL
+$1.2
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$18.8
PnL
+$1.6
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
Invested
$16.09
Value
$16.62
PnL
+$0.53
Record
27%
921-2513 (3434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.