Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 68¢ · $477 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$476.77
$35.34
62.5¢ → 68¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 63.8¢ | $232.49 | $247.64 | +$15.16 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 61.5¢ | $159.79 | $176.8 | +$17.01 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 63.1¢ | $15.68 | $15.42 | -$0.26 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $12.6 | $12.8 | +$0.2 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $12.8 | +$2 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $10.08 | $11.32 | +$1.24 | 20% 61-241 (302) |
Invested
$232.49
Value
$247.64
PnL
+$15.16
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$159.79
Value
$176.8
PnL
+$17.01
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$15.68
Value
$15.42
PnL
-$0.26
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.6
Value
$12.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$12.8
PnL
+$2
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
Invested
$10.08
Value
$11.32
PnL
+$1.24
Record
20%
61-241 (302)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.