Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on November 12?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 56¢ · $42 held · ends Nov 12

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$42.34

Combined PnL

-$3.25

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$33.9

Total Shares63

Combined PnL-$3.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.44

Total Shares19

Combined PnL-$0.1

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 62.9¢	$14.66	$12.55	-$2.11	53% 5602-5022 (10624)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 57.6¢	$11.52	$10.76	-$0.76	37% 3143-5368 (8511)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 55.2¢	$10.88	$10.59	-$0.28	22% 80-280 (360)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 44.7¢	$6.39	$6.25	-$0.14	68% 2062-949 (3011)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.19	+$0.04	30% 258-593 (851)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.66

Value

$12.55

PnL

-$2.11

Record

53%

5602-5022 (10624)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$11.52

Value

$10.76

PnL

-$0.76

Record

37%

3143-5368 (8511)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$10.88

Value

$10.59

PnL

-$0.28

Record

22%

80-280 (360)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.39

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$0.14

Record

68%

2062-949 (3011)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.04

Record

30%

258-593 (851)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.1%

55.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$72.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

172.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.