Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 90¢ · $79 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$79.28
-$3.09
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $18.14 | $17.96 | -$0.18 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $19.2 | $17.96 | -$1.24 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $16.92 | $15.88 | -$1.05 | 14% 55-329 (384) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $13.61 | $13.58 | -$0.02 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $10.31 | $9.34 | -$0.97 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $4.19 | $4.56 | +$0.37 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$18.14
Value
$17.96
PnL
-$0.18
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$19.2
Value
$17.96
PnL
-$1.24
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
Invested
$16.92
Value
$15.88
PnL
-$1.05
Record
14%
55-329 (384)
Invested
$13.61
Value
$13.58
PnL
-$0.02
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
Invested
$10.31
Value
$9.34
PnL
-$0.97
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$4.19
Value
$4.56
PnL
+$0.37
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.