Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on November 11?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 78¢ · $240 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$240.23
-$13.95
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 25.7¢ | $210.56 | $184.02 | -$18.43 | 28% 221-563 (784) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.7¢ | $122.96 | $105.25 | -$17.71 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 78.2¢ | $78.99 | $78.77 | -$0.72 | |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $49.11 | $33.71 | -$15.4 | 68% 2060-948 (3008) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 73.3¢ | $9.94 | $10.71 | +$0.78 | 83% 496-101 (597) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $10 | $10.67 | +$0.68 | 29% 858-2135 (2993) |
Invested
$210.56
Value
$184.02
PnL
-$18.43
Record
28%
221-563 (784)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.11
Value
$33.71
PnL
-$15.4
Record
68%
2060-948 (3008)
Invested
$9.94
Value
$10.71
PnL
+$0.78
Record
83%
496-101 (597)
Invested
$10
Value
$10.67
PnL
+$0.68
Record
29%
858-2135 (2993)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.