Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on November 11?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 44¢ · $302 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$301.99
-$22.21
53.5¢ → 44¢
-18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 52.1¢ | $155.4 | $147.53 | -$7.87 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.1¢ | $126.58 | $108.13 | -$18.45 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40.6¢ | $28.82 | $39.41 | +$10.59 | |
HE hello.67CTR | Noavg 53.6¢ | $155.11 | $130.29 | -$24.82 | 68% 2063-953 (3016) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 46.6¢ | $16.21 | $19.32 | +$3.11 | 80% 558-142 (700) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.9¢ | $4.79 | $4.24 | -$0.55 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $0.55 | $0.6 | +$0.05 | 47% 353-400 (753) |
Invested
$155.4
Value
$147.53
PnL
-$7.87
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
Both legs:
Invested
$155.11
Value
$130.29
PnL
-$24.82
Record
68%
2063-953 (3016)
Invested
$16.21
Value
$19.32
PnL
+$3.11
Record
80%
558-142 (700)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$4.24
PnL
-$0.55
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$0.55
Value
$0.6
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
353-400 (753)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.