Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $912 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$911.85
-$74.27
83.8¢ → 78.5¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 86¢ | $555.21 | $500.22 | -$54.99 | 68% 2060-948 (3008) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 81.5¢ | $368.72 | $350 | -$18.72 | 28% 221-563 (784) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $27.24 | $27.33 | +$0.08 | 83% 496-101 (597) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82.3¢ | $33.52 | $23.89 | -$1.32 | 54% 358-310 (668) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $9.73 | $10.4 | +$0.68 | 40% 1426-2156 (3582) |
Invested
$555.21
Value
$500.22
PnL
-$54.99
Record
68%
2060-948 (3008)
Invested
$368.72
Value
$350
PnL
-$18.72
Record
28%
221-563 (784)
Invested
$27.24
Value
$27.33
PnL
+$0.08
Record
83%
496-101 (597)
Invested
$33.52
Value
$23.89
PnL
-$1.32
Record
54%
358-310 (668)
Invested
$9.73
Value
$10.4
PnL
+$0.68
Record
40%
1426-2156 (3582)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.