Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 80°F or higher on November 10?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $103 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$103.5
$0.05
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $40.06 | $40.08 | +$0.02 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $30.48 | $30.49 | +$0.02 | 100% 93-0 (93) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.02 | 32% 811-1697 (2508) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2.94 | $2.94 | +$0 | 30% 174-414 (588) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$40.06
Value
$40.08
PnL
+$0.02
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$30.48
Value
$30.49
PnL
+$0.02
Record
100%
93-0 (93)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
32%
811-1697 (2508)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$2.94
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
174-414 (588)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.