Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $116 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$115.52
-$1.58
98.5¢ → 98.2¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $59.1 | $56.7 | -$2.4 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $39.51 | $37.89 | -$1.62 | 35% 2882-5322 (8204) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $11.19 | $10.7 | -$0.49 | 36% 508-898 (1406) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $2.4 | $5.5 | +$3.1 | 23% 149-503 (652) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $4.73 | -$0.18 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
Invested
$59.1
Value
$56.7
PnL
-$2.4
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$39.51
Value
$37.89
PnL
-$1.62
Record
35%
2882-5322 (8204)
Invested
$11.19
Value
$10.7
PnL
-$0.49
Record
36%
508-898 (1406)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$3.1
Record
23%
149-503 (652)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.73
PnL
-$0.18
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.