Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on November 10?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $132 held · ends Nov 10

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$132.14

Combined PnL

$16.62

Smart Money Entry

80.4¢ → 89.5¢

+11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$132.14

Total Shares144

Combined PnL+$16.62

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 82.2¢	$33.49	$37.49	+$4.01	—
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 78¢	$23.4	$27.6	+$4.2	—
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 77¢	$23.1	$27.6	+$4.5	—
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$18.92	$20.87	+$1.94	—
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 81¢	$5.01	$5.69	+$0.68	—
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.99	$5.67	+$0.68	—
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.05	$4.6	+$0.55	—
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 87¢	$2.56	$2.62	+$0.06	—

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$33.49

Value

$37.49

PnL

+$4.01

Record

—

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

$27.6

PnL

+$4.2

Record

—

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$23.1

Value

$27.6

PnL

+$4.5

Record

—

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.92

Value

$20.87

PnL

+$1.94

Record

—

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$5.69

PnL

+$0.68

Record

—

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$5.67

PnL

+$0.68

Record

—

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.55

Record

—

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.56

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$0.06

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.