Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on November 10?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 48¢ · $132 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$132.32
-$5.87
45.5¢ → 48¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $63.16 | $65.16 | +$2 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.1¢ | $19.3 | $16.84 | -$2.46 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 55.6¢ | $16.24 | $16.65 | +$0.41 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $15.3 | $12.6 | -$2.7 | 5% 18-315 (333) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $15 | $12.6 | -$2.4 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $5.23 | $5.14 | -$0.09 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.1 | -$0.45 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $1.41 | $1.23 | -$0.18 | 35% 138-259 (397) |
Invested
$63.16
Value
$65.16
PnL
+$2
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$19.3
Value
$16.84
PnL
-$2.46
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$16.24
Value
$16.65
PnL
+$0.41
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$2.7
Record
5%
18-315 (333)
Invested
$15
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$2.4
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$5.23
Value
$5.14
PnL
-$0.09
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.45
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$1.23
PnL
-$0.18
Record
35%
138-259 (397)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.