Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on November 10?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 91¢ · $149 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$148.61
-$13.88
73.2¢ → 91¢
+24% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 74.5¢ | $44.7 | $48 | +$3.3 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 71.6¢ | $28.72 | $32.08 | +$3.36 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 73.6¢ | $26.32 | $28.63 | +$2.31 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 74.6¢ | $26.65 | $21.63 | -$5.03 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $20.45 | $7.08 | -$13.37 | 68% 1961-927 (2888) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $3.39 | $4.1 | +$0.72 | 28% 153-400 (553) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $4 | +$0.55 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.6¢ | $8.81 | $3.09 | -$5.72 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$44.7
Value
$48
PnL
+$3.3
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$28.72
Value
$32.08
PnL
+$3.36
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$26.32
Value
$28.63
PnL
+$2.31
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$26.65
Value
$21.63
PnL
-$5.03
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$20.45
Value
$7.08
PnL
-$13.37
Record
68%
1961-927 (2888)
Invested
$3.39
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$0.72
Record
28%
153-400 (553)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$4
PnL
+$0.55
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
Invested
$8.81
Value
$3.09
PnL
-$5.72
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.