Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on November 10?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 98¢ · $142 held · ends Nov 10

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$142.26

Combined PnL

-$0.6

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 98¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$141.02

Total Shares146

Combined PnL-$0.36

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.24

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$0.24

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$39.06	$38.86	-$0.21	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$29.34	$29.07	-$0.27	5% 18-315 (333)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$29	$29.07	+$0.07	10% 25-236 (261)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$25.17	$25.36	+$0.19	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$6.04	$6	-$0.04	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$5.01	$4.97	-$0.04	35% 138-259 (397)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$4.89	$4.85	-$0.05	4% 17-463 (480)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$2.87	$2.85	-$0.02	28% 153-400 (553)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$1.48	$1.24	-$0.24	21% 132-485 (617)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$39.06

Value

$38.86

PnL

-$0.21

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.34

Value

$29.07

PnL

-$0.27

Record

18-315 (333)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29

Value

$29.07

PnL

+$0.07

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.17

Value

$25.36

PnL

+$0.19

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.04

Value

PnL

-$0.04

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.04

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

17-463 (480)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.87

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.02

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.24

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.