Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on November 1?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 75¢ · $612 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$611.62
$75.09
81.8¢ → 75.4¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 81.7¢ | $371.4 | $400.58 | +$64.3 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 83¢ | $168.5 | $178.85 | +$24.26 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75.1¢ | $36.57 | $21.01 | +$3.32 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $4.24 | $9.23 | -$10.09 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $21.67 | $1.94 | -$6.71 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
Invested
$371.4
Value
$400.58
PnL
+$64.3
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$168.5
Value
$178.85
PnL
+$24.26
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Invested
$36.57
Value
$21.01
PnL
+$3.32
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$4.24
Value
$9.23
PnL
-$10.09
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
Invested
$21.67
Value
$1.94
PnL
-$6.71
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.