Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on November 1?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 56¢ · $397 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$397.33
-$4.3
66.3¢ → 55.5¢
-16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 68.7¢ | $307.8 | $300.14 | -$4.19 | 20% 318-1310 (1628) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $57 | $55 | -$2 | 59% 1828-1274 (3102) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 69.6¢ | $13.23 | $14.45 | +$1.22 | 50% 1843-1820 (3663) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $12.48 | $13.95 | +$1.47 | 53% 6559-5774 (12333) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75.4¢ | $14.59 | $13.78 | -$0.81 | 57% 13804-10576 (24380) |
IstarothInvested
$307.8
Value
$300.14
PnL
-$4.19
Record
20%
318-1310 (1628)
Invested
$57
Value
$55
PnL
-$2
Record
59%
1828-1274 (3102)
Invested
$13.23
Value
$14.45
PnL
+$1.22
Record
50%
1843-1820 (3663)
Invested
$12.48
Value
$13.95
PnL
+$1.47
Record
53%
6559-5774 (12333)
Invested
$14.59
Value
$13.78
PnL
-$0.81
Record
57%
13804-10576 (24380)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.