Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on November 1?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 35¢ · $629 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
2 arb excluded
$628.69
$4.99
Research grade
NeutralNo at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 41.2¢ | $292.81 | $454.2 | +$68.39 | 59% 1919-1349 (3268) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28¢ | $139.02 | $330.41 | +$96.99 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41.2¢ | $152.39 | $123.79 | -$28.6 | |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 61.1¢ | $131.39 | $114.92 | -$3.44 | 18% 364-1623 (1987) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 42.8¢ | $49.7 | $68.49 | +$21.8 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 61.1¢ | $70.93 | $46.43 | -$25.24 | |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $15.75 | $29.5 | +$11.25 | 54% 466-390 (856) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 51.9¢ | $16.39 | $15.83 | -$0.56 | 53% 6686-5884 (12570) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 56.6¢ | $40.61 | $14.24 | -$5.7 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
Invested
$292.81
Value
$454.2
PnL
+$68.39
Record
59%
1919-1349 (3268)
Both legs:
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$131.39
Value
$114.92
PnL
-$3.44
Record
18%
364-1623 (1987)
Both legs:
Invested
$15.75
Value
$29.5
PnL
+$11.25
Record
54%
466-390 (856)
Invested
$16.39
Value
$15.83
PnL
-$0.56
Record
53%
6686-5884 (12570)
Invested
$40.61
Value
$14.24
PnL
-$5.7
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.