Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 60¢ · $530 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$530.28
$15.96
58.6¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $196.4 | $206.42 | +$10.02 | 51% 600-573 (1173) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 36.3¢ | $135.58 | $156.67 | +$21.09 | 60% 1636-1103 (2739) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 63¢ | $160.99 | $148.21 | -$7.67 | 55% 302-247 (549) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 64.1¢ | $72.15 | $11.6 | -$6.88 | 53% 6381-5587 (11968) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.5¢ | $7.99 | $7.38 | -$0.61 | 57% 13272-10114 (23386) |
Invested
$196.4
Value
$206.42
PnL
+$10.02
Record
51%
600-573 (1173)
Invested
$135.58
Value
$156.67
PnL
+$21.09
Record
60%
1636-1103 (2739)
Invested
$160.99
Value
$148.21
PnL
-$7.67
Record
55%
302-247 (549)
Invested
$72.15
Value
$11.6
PnL
-$6.88
Record
53%
6381-5587 (11968)
Invested
$7.99
Value
$7.38
PnL
-$0.61
Record
57%
13272-10114 (23386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.