Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 73¢ · $111 held · ends Oct 29

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$110.73

Combined PnL

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$49.39

Total Shares230

Combined PnL+$17.03

No3 traders

Total Value$61.34

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$12.03

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$32.23	$49.22	+$17	60% 1652-1111 (2763)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$80.02	$41.32	-$11.84	57% 13319-10177 (23496)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$18.84	$18.22	-$0.62	61% 20778-13190 (33968)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Noavg 72.3¢	$1.38	$1.81	+$0.43	51% 602-578 (1180)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.13	$0.17	+$0.03	53% 6389-5593 (11982)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.23

Value

$49.22

PnL

+$17

Record

60%

1652-1111 (2763)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$80.02

Value

$41.32

PnL

-$11.84

Record

57%

13319-10177 (23496)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$18.84

Value

$18.22

PnL

-$0.62

Record

61%

20778-13190 (33968)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.81

PnL

+$0.43

Record

51%

602-578 (1180)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

6389-5593 (11982)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.